Australian Property Market October 2026
Australian Property Market October 2026: What the Latest Cotality Data Means for Buyers and Investors
Australia’s property market has entered a very different phase in 2026.
The latest Cotality Home Value Index, covering the market to the end of September 2026, shows national dwelling values falling for the sixth consecutive month.
National dwelling values declined 1.1% in September, taking values 5.2% below the March 2026 peak. The national annual change was flat at 0.0%. COTALITY HVI OCT 2026 FINAL
But looking only at the national number does not tell the full story.
The Australian property market is becoming increasingly fragmented, with significant differences between capital cities, regional markets, property types and individual suburbs.
Australia’s Property Market at a Glance
The latest Cotality data shows:
- National dwelling values fell 1.1% in September
- Values are 5.2% below the March 2026 peak
- Combined capital city values fell 1.2% during September
- Combined regional values fell 0.7%
- Capital city inventory is 23.1% higher than a year ago
- Median capital city selling time has increased to 39 days, compared with 23 days a year earlier
- National home sales over the latest three months were 19.1% lower than a year ago
- National rental growth is still positive at 5.5% annually
- National gross rental yield has risen to 3.85% COTALITY HVI OCT 2026 FINAL COTALITY HVI OCT 2026 FINAL
This combination is creating a market where understanding the numbers matters more than simply following headlines.
Sydney and Melbourne Continue to Experience the Largest Correction
Sydney remains one of the markets experiencing the deepest decline.
Cotality reports that Sydney dwelling values are now 8.6% below their February 2026 peak, while the city’s median dwelling value is approximately $1.199 million. COTALITY HVI OCT 2026 FINAL
Melbourne is also experiencing a significant correction.
Melbourne values are 7.5% below their March 2022 record high, while the September monthly decline was 0.7%. The median dwelling value was approximately $780,550. COTALITY HVI OCT 2026 FINAL
The important point for investors is that a falling headline price does not automatically make every property or suburb attractive.
Property performance remains highly dependent on location, supply, demand, rental conditions and the underlying characteristics of individual markets.
Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth Are Also Showing a Shift
Markets that previously recorded strong growth are now experiencing greater downward pressure.
Brisbane recorded the largest monthly capital city decline in September at 1.5%.
Despite the monthly decline, Brisbane remained 5.9% higher than a year earlier.
Adelaide was also up 6.5% annually, while Perth recorded annual growth of 10.1%. COTALITY HVI OCT 2026 FINAL
This illustrates an important characteristic of the current Australian property market.
A market can experience a short-term correction while still recording substantial growth over a longer period.
For investors, that makes the timeframe of the analysis extremely important.
Regional Australia Is Showing Greater Resilience
One of the clearest differences in the latest data is between capital and regional markets.
Combined regional dwelling values were 5.6% higher than a year ago, compared with an annual decline of 1.8% across combined capitals. COTALITY HVI OCT 2026 FINAL
However, regional markets are not moving uniformly either.
The Cotality report shows annual growth across several regional markets, including:
- Regional WA: 14.1%
- Regional SA: 10.7%
- Regional Tasmania: 11.6%
- Regional Queensland: 6.3%
- Regional Victoria: 3.6%
- Regional NSW: 3.4% COTALITY HVI OCT 2026 FINAL
This reinforces why national averages can be misleading when assessing an individual investment market.
More Property Stock Is Coming Onto the Market
One of the most significant changes for buyers is the increase in available stock.
Across the combined capital cities, new listings entering the market were actually 9.2% lower than a year ago.
However, total advertised inventory was 23.1% higher.
Why?
Because properties are selling more slowly.
Cotality reports that capital city homes are now taking a median 39 days to sell, compared with 23 days a year earlier. COTALITY HVI OCT 2026 FINAL
This creates a very different environment from a highly competitive market where properties are selling almost immediately.
Buyers may have more choice and more time to assess properties.
At the same time, sellers may need to become more realistic about pricing expectations.
What Should Property Investors Look At Now?
1. What is happening to local values?
National numbers can hide major differences between suburbs.
2. What is happening to rental demand?
Look at rents, vacancy rates and tenant demand.
3. How much stock is available?
Higher inventory can change negotiation dynamics.
4. How quickly are properties selling?
Time on market can reveal whether demand is strengthening or weakening.
5. What is happening to supply?
Cotality notes that persistently low levels of newly built housing remain an important factor supporting some markets. COTALITY HVI OCT 2026 FINAL
6. Does the property fit the investment strategy?
A property should be assessed against the investor’s objectives rather than purchased simply because its price has fallen.
The Cotality SA3 data illustrates this clearly. For example, in Greater Melbourne, Sunbury recorded annual growth of 1.3%, while Cardinia recorded a 2.6% annual decline. In Greater Perth, Serpentine-Jarrahdale recorded 15.3% annual growth, while Stirling recorded 10.6%. COTALITY HVI OCT 2026 FINAL
That is why property investment decisions increasingly require suburb-level research rather than broad city-level assumptions.
Review your structure in the context of your investment strategy
If you currently hold property through a discretionary trust, speak with your accountant and legal adviser about the proposed rules. We can then help you assess the property, borrowing and portfolio implications as part of your broader investment strategy.
